Affiliate Commission Projector

How to use

See what you could earn — and what it may take to reach the next level. Project affiliate commission, flat tiers and income goals from your own click and conversion assumptions.

Project starts with five inputs: monthly affiliate clicks, gross-order conversion rate, average order value, commission rate and refund/cancellation rate. Currency formats USD/EUR/GBP without FX conversion. Optional tiers are collapsed and disabled initially. Optimize contains next-tier planning, Growth Target and conversion sensitivity; Compare allows one scenario with the same base/tier structure. Copy Result includes active tier, goal and comparison summaries; Reset restores defaults and refresh clears entries. Everything is calculated locally.

Affiliate commission formula

Let C be monthly affiliate clicks, v gross-order conversion fraction, A average order value, f refund/cancellation fraction and r the applied commission fraction.

Expected gross sales = C × v. Gross order revenue = C × v × A. Expected eligible sales = C × v × (1 − f). Eligible revenue = C × v × A × (1 − f). Projected commission = eligible revenue × r. Expected sales are not rounded before calculating commission.

Conversion rate is gross affiliate-attributed orders / affiliate clicks, before refunds. Refunds/cancellations reduce both expected sales and order revenue proportionally. Commission is a percentage of eligible order revenue after that adjustment; fixed bounties are not modeled.

Daily equivalent = monthly commission / 30 using a 30-day planning convention. Annualized projection = monthly commission × 12 with unchanged assumptions; neither guarantees calendar-day outcomes or predicts seasonality.

Clicks and conversion rate

Conversion rate = gross affiliate-attributed orders / affiliate clicks, before refunds/cancellations. Use tracked outbound affiliate clicks where available. Site visitors are not interchangeable with affiliate clicks; changing the denominator requires a corresponding conversion assumption.

Rate-based sales estimates are expected values. For example, ≈ 712.5 eligible sales describes an average outcome under the entered rates, not half of an actual order. There is no benchmark conversion database or prediction of what your traffic will do.

For a separate source-of-clicks scenario, model an email campaign funnel separately using its delivery, click and purchase assumptions. Email purchases are not automatically tracked affiliate-attributed orders; reconcile attribution windows and denominators independently.

Average order value

Average order value is the entered revenue per expected gross order. This version uses percentage commission on eligible order revenue after the proportional refund adjustment. Actual programs may commission gross value, net value, eligible items only or revenue excluding taxes/shipping. Use inputs consistent with the revenue base you want to model; this calculator does not determine program terms. Fixed CPA/bounty and per-click payout models are outside scope.

Refunds and cancellations

Refund/cancellation fraction f reduces both expected orders and gross order revenue by (1 − f). At 100%, eligible sales, revenue and commission become zero. Actual refunded order values may differ from average order values, so the proportional assumption can differ from realized outcomes. Program exclusions, denied transactions and clawbacks beyond this percentage are not separately modeled.

Earnings per click

Modeled EPC = projected commission / affiliate clicks. Commission per 100 clicks = EPC × 100. Default: $4,560.00 / 25,000 = $0.1824 per click, or $18.24 per 100 clicks. Actual network-reported EPC may use different windows or definitions.

At zero traffic, sales, revenue and commission are zero; EPC is undefined: “EPC requires at least one click.” For every additional 1,000 clicks, the simple impact metric uses the current applied rate without modeling a tier jump. Sensitivity and scenario comparisons re-evaluate their actual reached tier instead.

For a separate advertising question, compare paid-traffic costs with order economics with a compatible revenue and cost basis. Affiliate EPC is expected commission per affiliate click, not retailer gross margin or guaranteed ad break-even; do not substitute merchant sales value for the commission you earn.

Commission tiers

This calculator uses a flat-tier model: once a threshold is reached, the corresponding rate is applied to all eligible commissionable revenue. It does not use progressive brackets.

Configure 1–6 tiers using minimum expected eligible sales and commission percentage. The first threshold must be 0 and thresholds strictly increasing; rates can increase or decrease. A rate applies from its exact threshold to below the next threshold, so fractional expected sales have an unambiguous tier. Illustrative defaults are 0 → 5%, 21 → 7%, 51 → 10%; they are not industry or network benchmarks.

When disabled, the primary base commission rate is used. When enabled, the tier-derived rate is authoritative and the base rate is inactive. The rates are never added or applied twice. Thresholds use monthly eligible sales after refunds, not gross sales or clicks. This flat monthly model need not match any particular program.

Next-tier planning

The next configured tier shows its threshold and rate, additional eligible sales = next threshold − current expected eligible sales, and total traffic required. Required gross sales = next threshold / (1 − refund fraction); required traffic = required gross sales / conversion fraction. Total traffic is rounded up to whole clicks and verified against the forward funnel; additional clicks = ceil(max(0, whole required traffic − current traffic)). A later tier can have a lower rate; “next” means the next configured threshold, not necessarily greater earnings.

Zero conversion makes a positive next threshold unreachable. At 100% refunds, no eligible sales remain. If the traffic requirement exceeds the 1e12 monthly-click bound, an explanation is shown. At the last tier, the status is “Highest configured tier reached.”

Income goal planning

Growth Target belongs in Optimize. With a base rate: required traffic = target monthly commission / [conversion × AOV × (1 − refund fraction) × commission rate]. A positive target requires positive conversion, AOV, an eligible positive commission rate and refunds below 100%.

With tiers, evaluate each tier separately: take the greater of its threshold traffic and the traffic needed for the goal at its rate, round to whole clicks, then verify the actual tier reached and projected commission. Choose the lowest valid traffic that meets or exceeds the target across all intervals. This handles tier jumps and decreasing rates; an exact equality may not exist. If no interval meets the goal within the supported traffic bound, show why it cannot be solved. Current projection, target gap, resulting tier and additional clicks stay visible. If the current projection meets the target, no additional clicks are needed.

Scenario comparison

Compare changes affiliate clicks, gross-order conversion rate, AOV and refunds for one scenario. Both sides share the same base commission or tier configuration; each side independently reaches its appropriate tier. Compare expected gross/eligible sales, eligible revenue, applied rate, projected commission and modeled EPC. Monthly difference = scenario − current; annualized difference = monthly difference × 12.

The conversion sensitivity table in Optimize shows −1 percentage point, current, +1 pp and +2 pp, bounded to 0–100% with duplicate boundary values removed. It uses the actual tier reached by each scenario. These are deterministic what-if calculations, not predicted improvements or strategic rankings.

Worked examples

Default monthly projection

25,000 affiliate clicks × 3% = ≈ 750 gross sales. × $80 AOV = $60,000.00 gross order revenue. A 5% refund/cancellation adjustment leaves ≈ 712.5 eligible sales and $57,000.00 eligible revenue. × 8% = $4,560.00/month projected commission. EPC = $0.1824; per 100 clicks = $18.24; daily equivalent = $152.00; annualized = $54,720.00.

Refund adjustment

1,000 clicks × 5% = ≈ 50 gross sales. At $100 AOV, gross revenue is $5,000.00. With 20% refunds, expected eligible sales are ≈ 40, eligible revenue is $4,000.00, and 10% commission gives $400.00. Refunds reduce revenue and sales proportionally in this model.

Configured flat tiers

Using 0 → 5%, 21 → 7%, 51 → 10%: 2,000 clicks, 3% conversion, $80 AOV and 5% refunds give ≈ 57 eligible sales, $4,560.00 eligible revenue and a 10% tier rate. That one rate applies to all eligible revenue for $456.00 commission, without adding the base rate or using progressive brackets.

Tier-aware income goal

With those same three tiers and default conversion/AOV/refund assumptions, a $10,000.00/month target requires 43,860 whole monthly clicks. This gives ≈ 1,315.8 gross sales, ≈ 1,250.01 eligible sales and $100,000.80 eligible revenue at 10% commission: $10,000.08. The whole-click result meets or exceeds the goal; it is a projection, not guaranteed traffic or payout.

Assumptions and limitations

These are expected-value projections under entered assumptions, not guaranteed payouts or marketing advice. Attribution accuracy, cookie windows, cross-device attribution, tracking loss, last-click rules, assisted conversions, program exclusions, denied transactions and clawbacks beyond the entered refund rate are not determined here. Actual programs may use net order value, eligible items, revenue excluding taxes/shipping or other commission bases. Refunded order values may differ from the average order value.

Conversion rate is gross affiliate-attributed orders / affiliate clicks, before refunds. Refunds/cancellations reduce both expected sales and order revenue proportionally. Commission is a percentage of eligible order revenue after that adjustment; fixed bounties are not modeled.

Inputs describe a monthly expected-value model, with unchanged assumptions for annualization and a 30-day divisor for daily equivalent. The model does not measure attribution, integrate affiliate networks, track links, import transactions or rank marketing strategies. The tiers use expected eligible sales in a flat monthly period and do not implement progressive brackets or network-specific rules.

Traffic and tier thresholds: 0–1e12; AOV: 0–1e9; conversion, commission and refunds: 0–100%; 1–6 strictly ordered tiers starting at 0. Optional monthly goal must be greater than zero through 1e21; required traffic must remain within 1e12. Inputs must be finite plain decimals, at most 64 characters. Bounds are computational limits, not expected traffic or earnings benchmarks. Errors do not silently cap results.

FAQ

Sources

Official network documentation supports general click/action, commission and reversal terminology. Its particular contracts and payout rules are not implemented here; definitions and periods may differ by program. Sources do not endorse BuzCalculator or establish benchmark rates.

• impact.com: Affiliate click, action and commission terminology (opens in a new tab)
• impact.com: Reversed actions explained for partners (opens in a new tab)
• Awin: Validating commission payments (opens in a new tab)