SaaS Churn Rate Impact Calculator
Currency selection changes formatting only. No exchange-rate conversion.
Revenue churn assumptions
MRR = Monthly Recurring Revenue. This model uses revenue churn, not customer/logo churn.
Enter dot or comma decimals without currency symbols. Money: 0–1 trillion. Rates: 0–100%. Fixed 12-month horizon.
New MRR enters the ending balance and is exposed to churn beginning the following month.
Your current churn assumption
4% monthly revenue churn
Modeled 12-month revenue lost to churn
$187,122.44
Zero-churn cumulative revenue minus current-churn cumulative revenue, with all other assumptions identical.
Target: 2%
Potential modeled revenue preserved
+$87,346.33
Reducing monthly revenue churn from 4% to 2% would preserve approximately $87,346.33 in modeled recurring revenue over 12 months, if all other assumptions stayed the same.
Numeric target input remains authoritative. Slider range: 0–4%. Enter a higher target numerically to compare an increase.
Projection based on entered assumptions, not guaranteed business outcomes.
Modeled revenue lost to churn $187,122.44. Modeled revenue change at target $87,346.33. Month-12 MRR current $79,046.77, target $93,056.66.
Month-12 MRR — Current
$79,046.77Month-12 MRR — Target
$93,056.66Month-12 MRR difference
$14,009.89Month-12 ARR run rate — Current
$948,561.22Month-12 ARR run rate — Target
$1,116,679.86ARR run-rate difference
$168,118.64ARR run rate annualizes the Month-12 MRR; it is not the same as revenue earned during the 12-month forecast.
Current vs target MRR
MRR in USD. Axis labels × 1,000. Full values appear in the forecast table.
- Current churn — solid line, circle endpoint
- Target churn — dashed line, square endpoint
Monthly MRR forecast
Modeled recurring revenue is the sum of Month 1 through Month 12 ending MRR values; Today is excluded.
| Month | Current churn MRR | Target churn MRR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | $50,000.00 | $50,000.00 | $0.00 |
| Month 1 | $53,000.00 | $54,000.00 | $1,000.00 |
| Month 2 | $55,880.00 | $57,920.00 | $2,040.00 |
| Month 3 | $58,644.80 | $61,761.60 | $3,116.80 |
| Month 4 | $61,299.01 | $65,526.37 | $4,227.36 |
| Month 5 | $63,847.05 | $69,215.84 | $5,368.79 |
| Month 6 | $66,293.17 | $72,831.52 | $6,538.36 |
| Month 7 | $68,641.44 | $76,374.89 | $7,733.45 |
| Month 8 | $70,895.78 | $79,847.40 | $8,951.61 |
| Month 9 | $73,059.95 | $83,250.45 | $10,190.50 |
| Month 10 | $75,137.55 | $86,585.44 | $11,447.89 |
| Month 11 | $77,132.05 | $89,853.73 | $12,721.68 |
| Month 12 | $79,046.77 | $93,056.66 | $14,009.89 |
- Current modeled recurring revenue
- $802,877.56
- Target modeled recurring revenue
- $890,223.89
- Zero-churn modeled recurring revenue
- $990,000.00
Advanced assumptions
Expansion is additional recurring revenue from existing customers; new MRR is separate. Contraction excludes full churn. Do not include the same contraction in both the churn percentage and contraction amount. Negative ending MRR produces an error.
Gross margin changes only the gross-profit illustration. Customer retention requires both a whole starting customer count and a separate customer churn rate; neither is inferred from revenue churn.
Scenario comparison
Higher-churn scenario adjustment
Editable assumption, default +1 percentage point. Adjusted higher churn is capped at 100%; current and target inputs are unchanged.
Higher churn
5% monthly revenue churn
Month-12 MRR$72,982.00
Modeled recurring revenue$763,342.08
Current
4% monthly revenue churn
Month-12 MRR$79,046.77
Modeled recurring revenue$802,877.56
Target
2% monthly revenue churn
Month-12 MRR$93,056.66
Modeled recurring revenue$890,223.89
What does 1 percentage point matter?
Current revenue churn 4% → 3%.
12-month modeled revenue difference$42,227.79
All other assumptions stay fixed. This is mathematical sensitivity, not causal ROI.
Retention investment context
Revenue preservation opportunity: $87,346.33.
No gross margin was entered. Preserved revenue is not a break-even budget.
Show calculation
- The model applies churn to beginning-of-month recurring revenue, then adds the month’s new, expansion, and contraction MRR adjustments.
- Month 1 current: $50,000.00 × (1 − 4 / 100) + $5,000.00 + $0.00 − $0.00 = $53,000.00.
- Repeat with each ending MRR as the next month’s starting MRR. Target changes only revenue churn to 2%; zero-churn comparator changes only revenue churn to 0%.
- Modeled recurring revenue is the sum of Month 1 through Month 12 ending MRR values; Today is excluded. Current $802,877.56; target $890,223.89; zero churn $990,000.00.
- Modeled revenue lost to churn: $990,000.00 − $802,877.56 = $187,122.44.
- Potential modeled revenue change at target: $890,223.89 − $802,877.56 = $87,346.33.
- Month-12 ARR run rate: current $79,046.77 × 12 = $948,561.22; target $93,056.66 × 12 = $1,116,679.86.
- ARR run rate annualizes the Month-12 MRR; it is not the same as revenue earned during the 12-month forecast.
How to use
See what churn could cost your SaaS over the next 12 months — and what reducing it could be worth. Enter current MRR, monthly revenue churn, new MRR per month and target monthly revenue churn. Compare the modeled impact, chart and monthly table. Advanced assumptions are optional. Adjust the target numerically or with the slider, choose USD/EUR/GBP formatting, or copy the summary. Reset restores 50,000 MRR, 4% current churn, 5,000 new MRR and 2% target, zero expansion/contraction and blank optional fields.
What SaaS churn means
SaaS churn describes recurring subscriptions or recurring revenue lost during a period. Revenue churn rate = recurring revenue lost during a period / recurring revenue at the beginning of that period. Multiply this ratio by 100 for the monthly percentage. This calculator uses revenue churn by default.
Revenue churn vs customer churn
Customer/logo churn = customers lost / customers at the beginning of the period. Revenue weights customers by their recurring revenue; logo churn counts accounts. Neither rate determines the other. Optional customer retention requires both Customers today and a separate monthly customer churn rate. It models only the original cohort as Customers × (1 − customer churn / 100)^12, adds no customers and makes no target-revenue-churn customer comparison.
For a customer-level question, compare customer lifetime value using customer churn on a compatible period and cohort basis. Do not substitute revenue churn for customer churn; the lifetime model and this MRR recurrence answer different questions.
How the MRR forecast works
Ending MRR_m = Starting MRR_m × (1 − revenue churn / 100) + New MRR + Expansion MRR − Contraction MRR.
Starting MRR_(m+1) = Ending MRR_m. The model applies churn to beginning-of-month recurring revenue, then adds the month’s new, expansion, and contraction MRR adjustments. Modeled recurring revenue is the sum of Month 1 through Month 12 ending MRR values; Today is excluded.
There are 13 balances: Today and Month 1 through Month 12. No intermediate rounding changes the recurrence.
Cost of churn
Modeled revenue lost to churn = zero-churn cumulative modeled recurring revenue − current-churn cumulative modeled recurring revenue. The zero-churn comparator keeps starting MRR, new MRR, expansion and contraction identical and changes only churn to 0%. This scenario shortfall is not observed accounting loss, cash loss or profit.
Current vs target churn
Potential modeled revenue preserved = target cumulative modeled recurring revenue − current cumulative modeled recurring revenue. Only churn changes. If target equals current, the difference is zero. A target above current is allowed and relabeled as a modeled revenue change; it can be negative. Quick scenarios compare editable current +1 percentage point (capped at 100%), current and target. Sensitivity compares current minus 1 percentage point, floored at 0%; these are comparisons, not predictions.
To describe the current-to-target difference, compare churn changes in percentage points separately from the relative percentage change. Use consistent monthly definitions; the comparison does not turn modeled revenue preservation into a forecast.
MRR vs ARR run rate
MRR is Monthly Recurring Revenue, a monthly recurring revenue level. Month-12 ARR run rate = Month-12 MRR × 12. ARR run rate annualizes the Month-12 MRR; it is not the same as revenue earned during the 12-month forecast. Month-12 MRR, cumulative modeled recurring revenue and ARR run rate are distinct outputs.
New MRR assumptions
New MRR is recurring revenue from new business added each month, held constant for all 12 months. It enters the ending balance and becomes exposed to churn beginning the following modeled month. At 0% churn, the default model grows linearly. At 100%, all starting MRR is removed before new and expansion MRR are added and contraction is subtracted.
Expansion and contraction
Expansion MRR is additional recurring revenue from existing customers, separate from new business. Contraction MRR is reduction from existing customers excluding full churn. Definitions vary between analytics platforms: some revenue-churn definitions include downgrades. Map your data consistently and never include the same contraction in both revenue churn and the separate contraction amount. If any scenario produces negative ending MRR, calculation stops with an error rather than clamping it.
Retention investment context
Revenue preservation is a scenario opportunity, not a break-even budget. Optional gross margin multiplies only the preservation difference to illustrate estimated gross-profit preservation; it does not change MRR. This can be used as a rough upper-bound reference when evaluating retention investments. It is not a break-even guarantee. Timing, implementation costs, causality and uncertainty still matter.
Worked examples
Example 1: current 4% vs target 2%
Starting MRR $50,000.00, new MRR $5,000.00 per month, zero expansion and contraction.
| Month | Current MRR | Target MRR |
|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | $53,000.00 | $54,000.00 |
| Month 3 | $58,644.80 | $61,761.60 |
| Month 6 | $66,293.17 | $72,831.52 |
| Month 12 | $79,046.77 | $93,056.66 |
Cumulative modeled recurring revenue: current $802,877.56, target $890,223.89, zero churn $990,000.00. Modeled revenue lost vs zero churn $187,122.44; potential preserved at target $87,346.33; Month-12 ARR run-rate difference $168,118.64.
Example 2: pure churn
With $100,000.00, 5% monthly revenue churn and no new MRR, Month 1 is $95,000.00 and Month 2 is $90,250.00. Each month retains 95% of the preceding balance; decay compounds.
Example 3: zero churn
Starting at $50,000.00 and adding $5,000.00 per month with 0% churn gives Month 1 $55,000.00 and Month 12 $110,000.00. This is linear growth; modeled churn loss is $0.00.
Example 4: revenue vs customer churn
5% revenue churn does not necessarily mean 5% of customers churned. Losing one large account can produce substantial revenue churn with low logo churn. Account counts and recurring revenue must be measured separately; this is a conceptual example, not a benchmark.
Assumptions and limitations
The fixed 12-month model holds monthly churn and new/expansion/contraction MRR constant. It does not model acquisition timing within a month, individual cohorts, reactivation, seasonality, price changes, cash collections, accounting revenue recognition, implementation costs or causal effects. Original-customer counts are fractional expected values. Money inputs accept 0–1 trillion, rates 0–100%, whole customers 0–1 billion; plain finite numbers are limited to 64 characters. Currency changes formatting only, without FX conversion. Native floating-point calculations are rounded only for display. Calculations require JavaScript and stay in this tab; refresh clears inputs.
FAQ
What is SaaS churn?
Churn is loss of recurring subscriptions or revenue during a period. Specify whether you mean revenue churn or customer churn; they measure different losses.
What is revenue churn?
Revenue churn rate = recurring revenue lost during a period / recurring revenue at the beginning of that period. Enter the monthly percentage, excluding any contraction entered separately.
What is customer or logo churn?
Customer/logo churn = customers lost / customers at the beginning of the period. The optional original-customer illustration uses its own customer churn percentage.
How does churn affect MRR?
Churn reduces beginning-of-month MRR. New and expansion MRR can offset that loss, while separately entered contraction reduces the ending balance.
How does this calculator forecast MRR?
Ending MRR = Starting MRR × (1 − monthly revenue churn / 100) + New MRR + Expansion MRR − Contraction MRR. Repeat for 12 months with each ending balance as the next starting balance.
What does “revenue lost to churn” mean here?
It is zero-churn cumulative modeled recurring revenue minus current-churn cumulative modeled recurring revenue. Both sum Month 1–12 ending MRR and share every other assumption. It is not observed accounting loss.
How is potential revenue preserved calculated?
Target cumulative modeled recurring revenue minus current cumulative modeled recurring revenue, with only revenue churn changed. A higher target can give a negative difference.
What is the difference between MRR and ARR run rate?
ARR run rate annualizes the Month-12 MRR; it is not the same as revenue earned during the 12-month forecast. ARR run rate equals Month-12 MRR × 12.
Does new MRR also churn in the model?
Yes, beginning the following month. New MRR is added after churn to the current month’s ending balance. Expansion follows the same simplified timing.
Is reducing churn guaranteed to produce the projected revenue?
No. This is a mathematical scenario, not causal ROI or a business prediction. Constant assumptions, costs, timing, implementation and uncertainty can differ from actual performance.
Sources
Reviewed October 2, 2026 against the implemented recurrence and these metric definitions. Sources provide definitions, not endorsement or forecasts.
- ChartMogul: Understanding MRR movements (opens in a new tab) — distinguishes new business, expansion, contraction and churn.
- Baremetrics: User and Revenue Churn (opens in a new tab) — separate customer and revenue metrics; its revenue definition includes downgrades.
- ChartMogul: Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) (opens in a new tab) — recurring revenue normalization and ARR = MRR × 12.